What would happen if Australia followed the China Model?

A short post. I have been doing some calculations. If Australia followed the China Model (as more and more countries are doing, the latest being New Zealand), the results would be as follows:

80,000 infections in a population of 1.4 billion is equivalent to 1370 infections in a population of 24 million (Australia).

There is one problem: the regime in Australia is totally inept, so it clearly will not be able to keep COVID-19 infections to anywhere near 1370.

Meanwhile, I am taking the slow route home from Sydney, riding my bicycle through the mountains for a week or more and sleeping in my tent.

2 thoughts on “What would happen if Australia followed the China Model?

  1. Very good idea, dear Roland, to make this kind of calculations! – Surely from the point of view of purely academic medicine and epidemiology, China has mastered the crisis in a very good way! But integrating alternative medicine in a more expanded way maybe would have been even better (as Mao said some decades ago, socialist medicine should be “walking on two legs”!).
    Just yesterday like you I have calculated the numbers for India, that from the beginning of the epidemic by its official ministry for alternative medicine AYUSH recommended homeopathy as prophylaxis with a concrete prescription (that was criticized violently by official medicine).
    But the result: Almost exactly like China India has about 1.3 Milliards of inhabitants (we call 1’000’000’000 a Millard and not a Billion!) but until now there are only about 80 cases Covid-19, the lowest or at least one of the lowest percentuall numbers worldwide!!! Of course other factors may play a role; but it seems sure that 60% of the Indians choose homeopathic medicine in first line when sick, so at least those would have followed the official recommendation for sure! (I send you a copy of my communication in German by mail).
    All the best for you and China!
    (Have good further ride by bike and tent – and the rest to China wold be swimming?)
    Hanspeter

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